Analysis of alumina industry chain and market

Because of large domestic aluminum group basic already get through the industrial chain of the alumina, electrolytic aluminum, more than large alumina products for their own internal use electrolytic aluminium enterprises, so the flow in the market of aluminum oxide of alumina plant is mainly composed of some small and traders to provide, and "collectivization" also provides part of the electrolytic aluminium production "mat". From the historical data, when the alumina industry suffers losses, alumina operating capacity will not be reduced on a large scale, which may be because the industrial chain integration of large aluminum groups makes it necessary to provide guaranteed supply for internal downstream enterprises. This shows that the operating capacity of alumina is not driven by profit and change.

In addition, the actual elasticity of alumina market supply is not high. Although judging from market data, alumina market seems to be a surplus market. At present, the domestic alumina built capacity has exceeded 90 million tons, relative electrolytic aluminum capacity "ceiling" is more than enough, but such a "surplus" market, but in most of the time enjoy full profits. The reason is that the completion of alumina production capacity, the capacity has become a "zombie" capacity, even in the second half of 2021 alumina industry profits filling period, since the "zombie" capacity never opened or for maintenance and technical transformation, this part of the production capacity is expected in the next big probability also won't open it. Remove the section capacity, alumina effective capacity (i.e., in the case of profitable big probability can normal operation capacity) only 83.55 million tons, can only support production 38.73 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, shows that the elasticity of the alumina market supply is relatively limited, if because profits or lack of raw materials and other reasons, led to the effective part of the production capacity, There may still be a mismatch between supply and demand, which brings unilateral price increases in alumina prices.